“In a notice posted Tuesday afternoon, Millennium announced restrictions along the Corning East segment, capping it at 730 MMcf/d until further notice,” Genscape Inc. analyst Molly Rosenstein said. “Corning East is a key segment on the western end of the system, upstream of storage interconnects to Stagecoach and Seneca Lake, and pipeline interconnects to Empire and Dominion. Based on Tuesday’s flows, the restrictions will affect 65 MMcf/d westbound New York flows.”
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“Combining the cold with the structural demand growth already present in the market, we see demand reach record highs,” Genscape said. “Demand is averaging an April record high of 5.69 Bcf/d and has not dropped below 5 Bcf/d on any single day. To put that in context, April demand has never topped the 5 Bcf/d mark in the last 11 years.”
Tugs were dispatched to douse the flames. According to Genscape Vesseltracker, Miri District maritime director sent Sinabawang Nabed 23 and Siakap to the burning ship. They were assisted by offshore vessels Hisyam 8 and Neopetro 18 at the accident.
Genscape Inc. said Monday it expects “modest support” for spot prices this week from a combination of lingering heating demand and a decrease in production.
“Lower 48 production is also down,” Genscape said. Affiliate “SpringRock’s daily pipe production estimate is showing weekend volumes came in about 0.86 Bcf/d below last week’s record-setting 79 Bcf/d mark. The largest declines off the high are in the Northeast, led by seasonal maintenance-induced drops in Northeast Pennsylvania and West Virginia. “Northeast temperatures are forecasted to remain cooler than the 30-year average for the next two weeks.” Genscape said.
In addition to the demand surge, supplies from New York were reduced because two nuclear reactors and a transmission line from Quebec were shut down, Genscape Inc. analysts Michael DuBois and Robert Lance said in emails. Power traders were caught off guard by the brisker-than-expected temperatures, dark clouds and rain, and that caused wholesale electricity prices in Boston to climb above $200 a megawatt-hour for the first time in a month.
Genscape Inc. was calling for New England regional demand to fall to around 2 Bcf/d Friday versus a recent seven-day average close to 3 Bcf/d. In the Appalachia region, Genscape was forecasting demand to come in at 6.74 Bcf/d Friday, down from a recent seven-day average 13.71 Bcf/d.
Projects in the works could boost outgoing pipeline capacity from the Permian from 2.7 million bpd in March to more than 4.5 million bpd by the end of 2019, according to energy industry information provider Genscape.
While the two projects would allow Canada to export more than a million additional barrels a day combined, pipelines could fill up again by the mid-2020s, according Mike Walls, a Genscape Inc. analyst. And, unlike Trans Mountain, neither offers access to coveted Asian markets.
El Paso Natural Gas was expected to begin testing on its Black River Station Wednesday and Thursday, reducing operating capacity by 125 MMcf/d, according to Genscape.
“This point typically flows very close to operating capacity, so capacity reductions usually equate to flow cuts,” the firm said. “The affected L2000 line flows gas westward out of the Permian.”
The expansion would increase the crude flowing through the pipeline to 890,000 barrels a day and make Canada a big global competitor in China and India, where appetite is surging. U.S. producers have logged major oil sales in China since they started exporting there two years ago, but Asian refineries prefer Canada’s heavier crude to the lighter U.S. variety, says Mike Walls, an analyst with commodity and energy data company Genscape.